After a long break, the CT season will open at Bells Beach this week.
The Forecast
The 11-day forecast shows a modest swell window with two distinct pulses.
| Date | Swell (m) | Period (s) | Dir | Face (ft) | Wind (km/h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 | 0.58 | 11.9 | SSW | 3 | 21.1 |
| Apr 2 | 0.56 | 10.8 | WSW | 3 | 20.4 |
| Apr 3 | 1.38 | 13.3 | SSW | 7 | 20.0 |
| Apr 4 | 1.2 | 13.1 | SW | 6 | 22.0 |
| Apr 5 | 1.08 | 5.7 | ESE | 5 | 21.7 |
| Apr 6 | 0.88 | 5.8 | ESE | 4 | 22.4 |
| Apr 7 | 1.04 | 14.1 | SSW | 5 | 13.3 |
| Apr 8 | 1.02 | 13.3 | SW | 5 | 13.2 |
| Apr 9 | 0.86 | 14.7 | SW | 4 | 16.9 |
| Apr 10 | 0.96 | 13.6 | SSW | 5 | 11.5 |
| Apr 11 | 1.0 | 13.6 | SSW | 5 | 10.1 |
Opening days (April 1–2) look small — 0.56–0.58m at 3-foot faces. The best window arrives April 3–4, when a proper SSW groundswell lifts the lineup to 6–7 foot faces at 13+ second periods.
A mid-week lull follows before a secondary long-period pulse settles in for the back half: 0.86–1.04m at 13–15 second periods from the SSW through April 7–11, with face heights around 4–5 foot. Winds ease from 20+ km/h early in the window to 11.5 km/h on April 10 and 10.1 km/h on April 11. If the event goes deep, the cleanest conditions for a final may arrive last.
The forecast’s average swell of 0.96m sits just below the average over the past few years (2022-2026) of 1.1m (max 1.98m) across 55 competition days. 2023 is the most comparable year, which averaged 1.0m — and produced Ethan Ewing and Tyler Wright as champs.
Men’s Venue Form Guide
Jordy Smith leads with a 14.86 venue average across 66 heats over his career. He won the event in 2017 with an 18.9 final and has posted a 19.14 heat total here, second only to Filipe Toledo’s record. Sixteen years of data (2008–2025) across all conditions. His Bells average over such a large sample size is the form guide’s most bankable number.
Filipe Toledo sits second at 14.39 across 36 heats and holds the men’s Bells record of the active crew: 19.7, dropped in the opening round of 2017. He won the event in 2022 with a 14.74 final. His best Bells season was that 2017 campaign — a 17.41 average across five heats.
Griffin Colapinto has the most interesting trajectory. He has a 13.95 venue average across 20 heats since 2022, and his 65.0% heat win rate puts him among the most efficient surfers at this break.
Jack Robinson defends his title with a 73.3% win rate at Bells — the highest in the top five — earned across 15 heats. His 2025 campaign was remarkable. More on that path below.
Ethan Ewing rounds out the five at 13.38 across 21 heats with a 66.7% win rate and the 2023 title (14.5 in the final). His best heat total of 18.76 shows what he’s capable of when Bells turns on.
Women’s Venue Form Guide
Carissa Moore owns the high scores. The three highest women’s heat totals at Bells in our data set belong to her: 19.43 (2013), 19.23 (2016), 19.13 (2017). She won three times (2013–2015). A 14.67 venue average across 51 heats leads the form guide, and a 68.6% heat win rate is second only to Stephanie Gilmore’s.
Stephanie Gilmore has the deepest Bells resume in either division: 72 heats, 53 wins, a 73.6% heat win rate. Four titles — 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2018 — the most of any surfer at this break in our data window. Fifteen years of data (2007–2023). Her 14.33 venue average sits just behind Carissa’s, but that win rate — nearly three in four heats — is the highest in any form guide, men’s or women’s.
Sally Fitzgibbons brings 56 heats and two titles (2011, 2012). A 13.99 average and 60.7% win rate built on consistent deep runs. Her best heat total of 18.84 sits among the highest at this venue.
Tyler Wright won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023, posting a 16.93 final score in the 2022 event. Her 13.87 venue average across 55 heats sits fourth, and her adjusted edge of +0.84 over her own CT average shows how specifically she elevates her game at Bells.
Lakey Peterson completes the top five at 13.37 across 37 heats. Her 45.9% win rate is the lowest in the form guide, but her best heat total of 18.5 and her +1.19 raw edge over her CT average suggest a venue that lifts her above her baseline even when she doesn’t close.
Defending Champions
Jack Robinson’s path through the bracket in 2025: 12.93 over Ryan Callinan (12.56) and Marco Mignot (11.23) in the opening round. Then 16.13 over Jackson Bunch (14.77). The quarterfinal was his best heat — 16.53 to Toledo’s 12.26, a 4.27-point margin. He edged Colapinto by 0.34 in the semi (14.67–14.33) and Igarashi by 0.27 in the final (14.14–13.87). His 15.06 average across those six heats was nearly two points above his prior career average at this venue. Something clicked at Bells last year.
Isabella Nichols took a less linear path to her 2025 title. She lost her opening-round heat to Sawyer Lindblad (14.63–12.66), dropping into the elimination bracket. Then four straight wins: Erin Brooks (13.67–10.03), Gabriela Bryan (15.94–10.67), Tyler Wright (10.67–2.50), and Luana Silva in the final (16.26–12.67). That 16.26 final was the best heat total of her five-year Bells career. Before 2025, she averaged 12.24 across 10 heats at this venue. Her 2025 average of 13.84 across five heats jumped more than a point and a half above that career line.
The Angle: Forehand Country
When a regular-footer meets a goofy in the same Bells heat, the regular wins 55% of the time on the men’s side (36 of 65 cross-stance matchups, CT 2005–2025) and 69% on the women’s side (22 of 32 matchups).
Goofys aren’t locked out entirely though. Italo Ferreira won the men’s event in 2018 and leads goofys with a 13.24 average across 26 heats — a number that would slot into the men’s form guide top five. Gabriel Medina averages 12.64 across 35 heats but hasn’t won here. The forehand advantage is real, but 55% on the men’s side is an edge, not a wall.
Record Book
Men’s (CT 2005–2025):
| Score | Surfer | Year |
|---|---|---|
| 19.70 | Filipe Toledo | 2017 |
| 19.54 | John John Florence | 2017 |
| 19.17 | Raoni Monteiro | 2013 |
Women’s (CT 2005–2025):
| Score | Surfer | Year |
|---|---|---|
| 19.43 | Carissa Moore | 2013 |
| 19.23 | Carissa Moore | 2016 |
| 19.13 | Carissa Moore | 2017 |
Storylines to Watch
Jack’s repeat bid. No man has won back-to-back at Bells since Mick Fanning (2014–2015). Robinson’s 73.3% heat win rate is the highest in the men’s form guide, and his 2025 campaign showed he can get it done.
Steph’s longevity. 53 of 72 heats won. Four titles spanning 2007 to 2018. A 73.6% win rate that no one else in either form guide can touch.
The Fine Print
The event opens under a full moon (99.6% illumination on April 1, peaking at 99.7% on April 2). Sunrise at 07:36, sunset at 19:16, golden hour from 18:16. Water temperature averages 17.5°C — 3/2mm territory.
Data: 19 men’s CT events (970 heats) and 18 women’s CT events (442 heats) at Bells Beach, 2005–2025. Marine swell data covers 55 competition days (2022–2026). Wind and temperature data covers 356 days (2005–2026). All stats filtered by division.
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